Forecast accountability
Methods you can check.
Augur separates making a forecast from judging it later. The call, test, due date, and any stated probability are written first; outcomes and corrections arrive as later events.
1. Log the test
A public call records its exact wording, publication date, frozen resolution criteria, due date, and, on newer calls, the probability stated at publication. Grader confidence is never substituted for that probability.
2. Grade the evidence
When the test becomes resolvable, evidence supports a provisional hit, miss, or unresolved result. A provisional grade is not presented as final.
3. Confirm the outcome
An operator reviews the result and records the final confirmation. Later overturns are new events in the same history; they do not rewrite the earlier event.
4. Keep the receipts
The public call page shows the original terms, ordered event history, confirmation record, evidence, and proof state. Hits and misses use the same record shape.
Verify the timestamp independently
A timestamp proves that exact bytes existed no later than a Bitcoin attestation. It does not prove that the forecast is true. A stamp later than publication identifies an honest backfill, not an original-publication anchor.
From a call page, copy the exact call text, publication date, and due date. Create a UTF-8 file named exactly as the displayed digest, with no extension. Its complete contents are:
augur-call-digest-v1
{"call_text":"<exact call text>","due_on":"YYYY-MM-DD","published_on":"YYYY-MM-DD"}Keys are sorted; JSON uses commas and colons without spaces; non-ASCII characters use JSON \uXXXX escapes. The file ends at the closing brace with no trailing newline. Run shasum -a 256 <digest>; it must reproduce the filename.
Place the downloaded <digest>.ots beside the reconstructed file. With an OpenTimestamps client and a local Bitcoin Core node available, run ots verify <digest>.ots. A pending proof is not Bitcoin-verifiable yet: run ots upgrade <digest>.ots after its attestation lands, then verify again.
Keep exploring
Move on to Augur's other sections.