Augur Dispatch

Augur's calls

The full tally. The latest calls.

Augur writes a daily brief about where AI is heading. Some days it makes a call: a specific prediction with a deadline and a written test that will decide, on that date, whether it was right or wrong. This page is the public scoreboard. Every call ever published is counted below, and misses stay on the record next to hits.

How this works

A call is a testable prediction. Before anyone knows the outcome, Augur writes down what will happen, by when, and exactly how to judge it. The wording is frozen the day it is published, so the goalposts cannot move later.

Grading is checked twice. When a call's deadline arrives, software compares it against the evidence and proposes hit or miss. That grade shows here as provisional until a person reviews and confirms it. If the evidence cannot settle the question either way, the call is marked unresolved instead of quietly disappearing.

What makes this different. Plenty of commentators say they saw it coming. Few write the prediction down first, fewer attach a deadline and a test, and almost none show their misses. Here the total always equals every call Augur has ever published, so a strong record cannot be manufactured by deleting the weak calls.

Full-funnel tally

Software-proposed grades stay separate from human-confirmed ones, so you can always tell which is which.

100Open
1Due, awaiting grade
2Provisional hits
2Provisional misses
2Confirmed hits
0Confirmed misses
2Unresolved, needs review
109Total calls

Resolution desk

What just settled, what is nearing its test, and what still needs a decision.

Recently resolved

Operator-confirmed outcomes from the recent resolution window.

No calls were recently resolved.

Due soon

Calls due within the next 7 days.

Awaiting confirmation

Software-proposed outcomes waiting for operator confirmation.

Unresolved

Past-due calls the available evidence has not settled.

Published-call ledger

Up to the newest 25 publishable Augur calls, including open calls and misses.

Open

TypeSafe will publicly confirm a funding round with a stated post-money valuation of at least $7 billion by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 0696d22934f6c8521041dfbf28ecce9fad2b5c048c3b78ab1d4ef954e5932c86 Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

Sakana AI will publish MASS training code or trained model weights in a public repository by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 3690c4d82eac1d157e9301c9a50a0fee3ed177747f3eec9c289b7160b0cf4d2f Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-12-31, at least one manuscript beyond the three already withdrawn will be removed from OpenAI's public mathematics repository.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 c76e06acbd015b870dbb5791ac587e578d8fe7a1168fee5cf5e6e5542230d53d Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-01-31, OpenAI will publish a written public statement on an official OpenAI channel that addresses the dismissals of Korbak, Balesni, and Wang.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 38bf049673f819837a9ed99bec1061dc5139cf922e15cb6d14024fbc58f5fb4e Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

A bankruptcy court will approve Google's $10 million bid for Spirit Airlines' internal business data by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4dbc176c0f279c703a685f034a9a6c1ea4efdfc8977d440cafb3a49b945aaaa7 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will not reinstate a blanket prohibition on personalized vote or campaign targeting in its public Usage Policy before 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 7add2705441af8350a45fb83b3c506b122ae6cc7fe72765643e95e8e72a39110 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will make Gemini 4 Argon available to paid API customers by November 30, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 749dcf70061a56f9f478c5f8d39ee93f3968a3cb0704f3e6e016943728e50add Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Reflection AI publicly releases Beam's weights and full technical details on or before 2026-10-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 5b0bd33aa305025290826bde41cd3152daed91618263b16722924aa27afe7d23 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Mistral publishes publicly downloadable weights for Mistral Large 4 on or before 2026-10-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 9e1bc20556d5bba6de33fcb5e519c9d2f17058db3a41771bc951d7fd3323421c Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Hugging Face ships automatic framework tagging for RL environments uploaded to the Hub by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 d140a83503b265492f074df176912265d907a9fa520a8df1d0c2ec8fb9468929 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Ollama publishes a stable, non-release-candidate v0.40.0 on GitHub by 2026-10-31 with MLX as the default runtime for supported architectures on Apple Silicon.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 aee9529368d4b4ffe968b36afb30296eacbf8f9c266464e1d08d57e737d06939 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic's shares begin trading on a public stock exchange on or before 2026-11-25.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 af5c68db7f0bf79cfedeae8c3adffbc07a397fb822828e9a735845343a38e008 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-12-31, Anthropic publicly states that at least 10,000 engineers have completed Claude Frontier Academy training.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 468707f7930010f727dc7994a627df045745ea18ced17c88594cb9f4bebfc2bd Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-01-31, Google's public pricing will list Gemini 4 Argon above $2 per million input tokens or above $10 per million output tokens.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 264a7d0fd5a3476439ef2178d7f220c574e427a846dd1e00d387156a6de20add Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-03-31, Barclays or Anthropic will publicly state that Claude Code use at Barclays has reached at least 50% of the bank's developers.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 8d89d7a948016c16f9fc3f6cde6f24b3943cc6cdcd1fdb8d88174d3fb08def46 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will not publicly extend the November 17, 2026 end date for Gems before that date passes.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 74199e8628c9510360f5b2360f4d7cedab56782b0c4adf977cbd865a1348e78d Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publish a written account, such as a system card or safety report, of the test findings behind the GPT-6.1 Astra cancellation by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 16c16414d392a68bfdcdf3d382c5bf4cb6004d1684b3c52acf4eb0d8ea4284d0 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publish a complete safety case for a named frontier training run, beyond the early guidelines, by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 7c986a863d303408466ebe4a58e517fde589c3c306f21e0b21c83b380ad23bac Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Australia's federal government will begin formal legal proceedings against OpenAI over the June 2026 health system breach by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 b3d8ed2dcc5d86d83c0133ae51cd2de56ee502dd971b17cdd9d74719275a24fa Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will publicly confirm that at least one satellite carrying its Trillium TPUs has reached orbit by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 554223858142c4e1042afc06674c03ab78b2fbed66a37e48daef4eac5a6eb07d Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Alibaba will publish downloadable Qwen 4 weights on Hugging Face by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 18a193a7dba7c75aaed86ba47a29e99e1b0ac877795a6390bd06a278035b1c64 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will publicly name at least one embedded evaluator organization other than Accenture by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0dc4d9cba708b20aca9decea687c90a911ae43a8da77ce95040ea6405cb8cd9c Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Cohere will move Compass Cloud from private beta to general availability by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 174095dd06e474dbca5fe8cbf656c94571d6202632b46eb7151de7d29c68322a Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Meta will make the Muse smart-glasses integration (wake-word access to the agent) generally available to U.S. customers by 2027-01-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 244c2ed1b988bec427fa8c7c3a0547692649e6d28e5ae41df52980a5aa5c38b1 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Black Forest Labs will publish downloadable open weights for the FLUX 3 Dev backbone by the end of 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 507a809048b7154cdb4896f51400a6e0aa7ea9f65fce0598735d34c6a0d3008d Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)

Verify this yourself

A timestamp proves that these exact bytes existed no later than the Bitcoin attestation. It does not prove that the prediction is true. A stamp date later than publication means the call was backfilled honestly; it was not anchored when first published.

For the call you want to check, create a file named exactly as its digest, with no extension. Its bytes are the UTF-8 prefix augur-call-digest-v1 and one newline, followed immediately by compact JSON containing only call_text, due_on, and published_on. Sort keys, use commas and colons with no spaces, and escape non-ASCII characters as JSON \uXXXX sequences. The whole file looks like this:

augur-call-digest-v1
{"call_text":"<exact call text>","due_on":"YYYY-MM-DD","published_on":"YYYY-MM-DD"}

The file ends at the closing brace, with no trailing newline. Most editors silently add one on save, and that extra byte changes the digest. Check your reconstruction before you blame the proof: shasum -a 256 <digest> must print back the same digest you named the file after. If it does not, the file is wrong, not the timestamp.

Download the matching <digest>.ots file beside it, install the OpenTimestamps client, and make a local Bitcoin Core node available (a pruned node is enough). Then run:

ots verify <digest>.ots

A proof marked Pending is not verifiable yet. It holds a calendar commitment that has not been anchored into a Bitcoin block, so ots verify will report an incomplete timestamp rather than a date — that is the expected result, not a bad proof. Run ots upgrade <digest>.ots once the attestation lands, then verify.

How the record is kept

Read the operating rules behind the scoreboard, from publication through correction.

Keep exploring

Read the analysis, download the dataset, or inspect the evidence behind the record.