Augur Dispatch

Augur's calls

The full tally. The latest calls.

Augur writes a daily brief about where AI is heading. Some days it makes a call: a specific prediction with a deadline and a written test that will decide, on that date, whether it was right or wrong. This page is the public scoreboard. Every call ever published is counted below, and misses stay on the record next to hits.

How this works

A call is a testable prediction. Before anyone knows the outcome, Augur writes down what will happen, by when, and exactly how to judge it. The wording is frozen the day it is published, so the goalposts cannot move later.

Grading is checked twice. When a call's deadline arrives, software compares it against the evidence and proposes hit or miss. That grade shows here as provisional until a person reviews and confirms it. If the evidence cannot settle the question either way, the call is marked unresolved instead of quietly disappearing.

What makes this different. Plenty of commentators say they saw it coming. Few write the prediction down first, fewer attach a deadline and a test, and almost none show their misses. Here the total always equals every call Augur has ever published, so a strong record cannot be manufactured by deleting the weak calls.

Full-funnel tally

Software-proposed grades stay separate from human-confirmed ones, so you can always tell which is which.

25Open
2Due, awaiting grade
0Provisional hits
0Provisional misses
1Confirmed hits
0Confirmed misses
0Unresolved, needs review
28Total calls

Published-call ledger

Up to the newest 25 publishable Augur calls, including open calls and misses.

Open

Cursor and SpaceXAI will publicly release a successor model to Grok 4.6 by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 243ac5e63937325c851bbbe6fe7181fc4b2e4a41a84b8d0b96b02eaea8b87fcb Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

The European Commission's AI Office or an EU national authority will publicly announce a formal enforcement action under the AI Act's transparency rules by 2027-02-01.

Published Due
Pending SHA-256 5a380bf551b610fd50457c8160303bdd8bd6d85830a735cd5396c1bcf80bdecd Stamped Download proof (.ots)
Open

Mistral will make at least one additional third-party open-weight model beyond GLM-5.2 available on its platform by December 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 43e0350737c8de28f84c4ed5ac61e4fdd7a6f49d6e722e593843960b98337521 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will move ads in ChatGPT from a test to general availability for free-tier users by March 31, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 57732f663bda8546d2f776717806ef39283762b4b2aa829969e6dedfc1086f42 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publish per-seat pricing for ChatGPT Business Premium seats on a public pricing, product, or help page by 2026-09-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 a7ea90688ef4d76c7ec41a594ac2ce02c2ff12dbce5cf5836afd16e90ba17942 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Through June 30, 2027, the US federal government will not adopt a binding rule, law, or executive order specifically setting containment requirements for AI models during safety evaluations.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 53ba777b6281d6a4d68a74447725afb8908a85b8a368429e83b8a07f1e85d68f Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will move DiffusionGemma or a successor few-step text generation model from experimental status to general availability by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 eba33d6e501c715295775bbeaae78ce31b802d38969133ea2983032f48f3d55c Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publicly announce customer availability of the model it calls Astra by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 698055825bc80b703365dc7cea2d5491a50b1bc645c7284808cfeb5fac6cbbd3 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Cursor will make its Router available on individual plans, beyond Teams and Enterprise, by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4268ffe7085388c4821fabd25b319cc2416ae16d37ea87c20beeb26a9ed55e37 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Discovery Loop will publish its first public research result, demo, or product page on or before June 30, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 071b7e9adaca35fb3ebfef17b4b611e8881944857768d3a98adfaf152814d163 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will ship a unified ChatGPT that merges the separate Chat and Work modes by December 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 80245404ae18894b2833035bc69af75c0155a2177a9241eccb6e780f2725bae4 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI shares will begin trading on a public stock exchange by 2027-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 3dbda773ecd20c5081cf21bbe7cc1c205489a6ebeaea612b6bb4ea2d736a9afb Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Together AI, Fireworks AI, or OpenRouter will offer a hosted endpoint for the MIT-licensed open-weights DeepSeek-V4-Flash by 2026-09-15.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0ba8463fadceff026b35607f7d40a9aff50da185601975fcca2b981604f72d8b Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

The White House will publicly release a finalized framework for testing frontier AI models by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 d4171c4e57590fff6c8f6a8a7bfc8b1c57ae8e04244b68ecaf5835ebc4b0cc1e Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will announce general availability of Gemini Robotics ER 2 on the Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform, moving it out of private preview, by 2027-01-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 2ab650721b5156cd305276b3fb8d18f8842e5c8fb108164aaf00736c8eba292b Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-10-31, at least one of AWS Bedrock, Azure AI Foundry, or Google Cloud Vertex AI will publicly list Kimi K3 as an available hosted model.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 9fe978737e23d9d545acf82fde3b7a73e8fa9babb4381fb4dd2f9cd31e26953a Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By July 31, 2027, Epoch AI or METR will publicly report an AI model solving at least 75% of MirrorCode tasks.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 1c7865c0a73ada776d59ca265817c589643fe5d315f6ae4bc46def06c6ffda72 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Due — awaiting grade

The EU AI Act's transparency obligations will take effect on 2 August 2026 without a formal delay or suspension.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 6a76c9e1d5f86ed0c3ade684515170b47f16f5d1372f0e1a5da8a12b106f6ce7 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will not publicly release the complete autonomous-agent traces from the July Hugging Face intrusion by 30 September 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 3632d2730183d7fe44f60a30ca56bc6d5fda9c9845f3e96303b63aa4fe80f6bc Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

A published benchmark report will show an open-weight model matching or beating Claude Fable 5 on DeepSWE pass@1 by the end of 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 957311a0c10e6a49507b26e17315f60e85390c472be653746a9d40f46b6dcecd Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will cut Claude Fable 5's list API price by at least 25% on or before 2026-10-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 da3d60147ee0ee053f8b10b9f248652ed16ffa802a8eeeb1bc1679051f344fae Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-01-31, at least one of AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud will announce a named spend-cap or budget-limit control specifically for AI agent or AI gateway workloads.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 825cd7724eb9dec0dd185d9f619e72ffd2e9f63925025abe958084bfc4a2dcd5 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-10-31, OpenAI will publish an official public account, such as a blog post or incident report, of the July 2026 Hugging Face benchmark intrusion involving its internal models.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 8beb1e721dbd725d47fab0080d3983a62aa96f4083695e7be83cd94d5e61d42e Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

New York will complete its environmental review and resume permitting for new data centers of 50 megawatts or larger by September 30, 2027.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 6390b24dab5a3d25ee80a08b965a0586266fac7a845e7ca4308ee0205d3d177f Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By March 31, 2027, at least one additional named company or platform will publicly disclose a security intrusion caused by a frontier AI lab's own model or autonomous agent, distinct from the July 2026 Hugging Face incident.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 f93c4a02ed8f71fbe460a4d8b737b1afee34fee5287bfda13e86099666d05549 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)

Verify this yourself

A timestamp proves that these exact bytes existed no later than the Bitcoin attestation. It does not prove that the prediction is true. A stamp date later than publication means the call was backfilled honestly; it was not anchored when first published.

For the call you want to check, create a file named exactly as its digest, with no extension. Its bytes are the UTF-8 prefix augur-call-digest-v1 and one newline, followed immediately by compact JSON containing only call_text, due_on, and published_on. Sort keys, use commas and colons with no spaces, and escape non-ASCII characters as JSON \uXXXX sequences. The whole file looks like this:

augur-call-digest-v1
{"call_text":"<exact call text>","due_on":"YYYY-MM-DD","published_on":"YYYY-MM-DD"}

The file ends at the closing brace, with no trailing newline. Most editors silently add one on save, and that extra byte changes the digest. Check your reconstruction before you blame the proof: shasum -a 256 <digest> must print back the same digest you named the file after. If it does not, the file is wrong, not the timestamp.

Download the matching <digest>.ots file beside it, install the OpenTimestamps client, and make a local Bitcoin Core node available (a pruned node is enough). Then run:

ots verify <digest>.ots

A proof marked Pending is not verifiable yet. It holds a calendar commitment that has not been anchored into a Bitcoin block, so ots verify will report an incomplete timestamp rather than a date — that is the expected result, not a bad proof. Run ots upgrade <digest>.ots once the attestation lands, then verify.